![]() ![]() Commercial reproduction, distribution or transmission of any part or parts of this website or any information contained therein by any means whatsoever without the prior written permission of the Club is not permitted. So while it is possible that the coin toss does matter, proving that it matters is difficult.This website is the only official website of the New England Patriots and is © Copyright New England Patriots (the "Club"). Estimating linear models predicting game results based on what happens during the coin toss yields standard errors that are much larger than the raw differences in score differentials and win percentages. ![]() While it's tempting to attribute these differences to coin toss strategy-no coach would turn down the option to increase win percentage by 1 or 2 percentage points-it's still not compelling evidence of a real advantage. After the rule change, they won 51.5%, and the win percentage among teams that chose to defer was 52.0%, compared to 50.8% for teams choosing to receive. In the 9 seasons prior to the rule change, teams winning the coin toss won 49.0% of their games. Then they noticed that Bill Belichick was doing something different and was still winning games and was also being called "clever", so they wanted to be more like him. Coaches initially favored receiving the opening kickoff after the rule change because that was called "winning" the coin toss in the past, and "winning" is a good word. It doesn't have a significant impact on scoring or who wins the game. It could also be that coaches were not inclined to develop preferences about the coin toss while it seemed out of their control, and that the availability of a choice led to more reflection and strategizing, and the realization that deferring was preferable.īut yet another possibility is that coin toss strategy doesn't really matter. ![]() One possibility is that the popularity of deferring is related to other changes in coaching strategy that happened to coincide with the new coin toss rules. Usually, though, Super Bowl coin toss odds are set next to even at a standard -105 with. All of the major SB58 betting sites offer these odds and some of them might even have different odds on them. Why did it take so long for coaches to realize that the "defer" option was preferable to receiving the opening kickoff? If there were good reasons to defer-confidence in half-time adjustments, kicking with the wind in the 4th quarter-wouldn't coaches have already been aware of them prior to the rule change? In that case we would have expected teams to begin choosing "defer" as soon as the option became available. Odds on the Super Bowl coin toss are as 50/50 as they come and the heads or tails odds are one of the most bet on Super Bowl prop odds each year. In the 2018 season, teams winning the coin toss deferred 92% of the time. In the following seasons, deferring grew in popularity, surpassing "receive" in 2012 as the most popular option. Teams selected this option 39% of the time in the 2008 season, and just 26% and 30% in the 20. The procedure after deferring would be essentially the same as if the deferring team had lost a coin toss prior to 2008. The rule change implemented in 2008 gave an additional option to the team winning the coin toss: They could now defer the privilege of making the first choice to the second half. These stadiums have been known to be windy, and the wind speeds recorded at game time do suggest that wind might have been a factor in these decisions. Two happened in the Bears' Soldier Field, and 1 was at Buffalo's Ralph Wilson Stadium. Five of these were games were in the old Giants Stadium (shared by the Giants and Jets). The Jets did so 4 times, and the Giants did twice. no one seems to have picked the "kick" option). In all of these cases, the coin toss winner chose a goal to defend (i.e. In 7 of 8 of those cases, the team that lost the coin toss was able to receive the ball at the start of both halves of the game. The following is a list of the 8 games from 1999 to 2007 where the team winning the coin toss did not choose to receive the opening kickoff. This explains why in 99.6% of regular-season coin tosses from 1999 to 2007 the winner of the coin toss chose to receive the opening kickoff. If they chose anything other than "receive", it would give the other team the opportunity to receive the ball at the beginning of the game and at beginning of the 2nd half. Under this scheme, the winner of the coin toss did not actually have much of a choice. The loser of the original coin toss gets first choice. Immediately prior to the start of the second half, the captains of both teams must inform the officials of their respective choices. The winner may choose one of two privileges and the loser gets the other: Prior to 2008, the opening coin toss in an NFL game was governed by the following rule: ![]()
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